16 highlights
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Experience is just a kinder word to describe life’s disappointments. And the thing about being around for a while means that everybody has got their fair share of those.
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The year was 2008. A year when it looked like our world was going to end, well when does it not! For the first time in its history, on 2 January, the price of oil hit $100 a barrel.
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The price of a barrel was below $25 as recently as 2003 and, almost unimaginably, below $11 in 1998, a time when there was a glut in the world oil markets.
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At a more macro level, interest in biofuels, specifically the potential of the plant called Jatropha and demand for efficient, cheap two-wheelers dominated the conversation.
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Our deep pockets are directly proportional to the price of oil, a luxury the rural populace can’t afford. So it is in this obscure village, Puthupalitinam, and several other small towns where India’s electric two wheeler industry is springing up.
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In hindsight, I should have known better. It took less than 30 months before the whole thing came crashing down.
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Mostly because the US figured out the most amazing innovation perhaps of this century, which is how to extract oil from shale rocks. The idea of peak oil got a swift burial and the price of crude plummeted, taking down almost all of the clean energy big talk with it.
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The Activa comparison is core to the question. This humble scooter is the single most important cultural shift in the history of two-wheelers in India.
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If EVs have to make sense, not in a cute kind of way but as something that the masses can ride, then it is the Activa which is their real competition. Are we there now in 2021?
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Over and above the subsidies offered by the central government on the purchase of an EV, now state governments are competing with each in terms of who can offer the most subsidy. Gujarat tops this list, followed by Maharashtra and Delhi, then Kerala, Karnataka and some seven other states.
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Credit for this goes to V. Sumantran, one of India’s automotive legends, who has lived a fairly under-the-radar life in the media. Chairman of the Department of Science and Technology’s Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser, he is the brains behind implementing the standards for EV infrastructure.
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It is remarkable how quickly things have moved. For instance, it took all of three years for India to put together guidelines and standards for charging infrastructure. Industry insiders say this kind of speed for any government function is unheard of.
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Two other important events stand out. One is Bhavish Aggarwal and his billion-dollar entry into making EVs with Ola Electric.
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The second crucial point is the current price of petrol. I know this is not the hill I would like to die on, but everybody agrees that the price of petrol isn’t coming back down to the Rs 80-90 range anytime soon.
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Spares and a clockwork supply chain are still the industry’s Achilles heel. As you are reading this, manufacturers are struggling to source electronic parts which are critical components, especially semiconductors. Large-scale manufacturing of lithium-ion cells and batteries in India is still some distance away.
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Early signs indicate people can’t have enough of it, and they are queuing up for change. Everyone I have gotten around to asking says, this time it is different. Oh, I know it is. From experience.